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How To Tell If We’re Beating COVID-19


This video made possible with support of Brilliant – the first 200 subscribers to go to http://Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
Go to http://aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!

Grant’s 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Aatish’s Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: https://github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb

Data Source: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

Understanding logarithmic scales: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html

What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
(Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)

This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point – we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in “phase space” – plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.

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